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NFL Draft Analyses

27 years of contextual re-drafts

About NFL Re-Drafts

NFL draft success is heavily dependent on situation. A quarterback behind a terrible offensive line will struggle regardless of talent. A receiver without a competent QB can't produce. Our analyses examine how landing spots — coaching, supporting cast, organizational culture — shape outcomes as much as raw ability.

Key Position Factors

Quarterbacks

  • • Offensive line quality
  • • Offensive coordinator system
  • • Skill position weapons
  • • Head coach stability

Skill Positions

  • • QB quality (for WRs/TEs)
  • • Scheme fit
  • • Target/touch opportunity
  • • O-line run blocking (RBs)

Defense

  • • Defensive coordinator scheme
  • • Surrounding talent
  • • Pass rush support (for DBs)
  • • Role clarity

All NFL Draft Analyses

2024

The Daniels Draft

+12 (Brock Bowers)

Daniels vs. Williams vs. Maye: When the Right System Makes All the Difference

#1: Caleb Williams (CHI)Read Analysis →
2023

The Bryce Young Draft

+43 (CJ Stroud)

Analytics miss the point

#1: Bryce Young (CAR)Read Analysis →
2022

The Sauce Gardner Draft

+37 (Sauce Gardner)

Sauce Gardner's Lockdown and the Travon Walker Reach

#1: Travon Walker (JAX)Read Analysis →
2021

The Lawrence Draft

+-30 (Zach Wilson)

The 'generational' class that wasn't

#1: Trevor Lawrence (JAX)Read Analysis →
2020

The Burrow Draft

+23 (Justin Herbert)

Three QBs, two superstars

#1: Joe Burrow (CIN)Read Analysis →
2019

The Kyler Murray Draft

+27 (Kyler Murray)

Kyler vs. The Giants' Double-Dip Disaster

#1: Kyler Murray (ARI)Read Analysis →
2018

The Baker Draft

+57 (Lamar Jackson)

Five QBs, four busts?

#1: Baker Mayfield (CLE)Read Analysis →
2017

The Mahomes Draft

+53 (Patrick Mahomes)

Chicago's biggest miss

#1: Myles Garrett (CLE)Read Analysis →
2016

The Goff/Wentz Draft

+22 (Dak Prescott)

Trade that flipped careers

#1: Jared Goff (LAR)Read Analysis →
2015

The Winston Draft

+145 (Stefon Diggs)

Winston vs. Mariota: When Everyone Was Wrong

#1: Jameis Winston (TB)Read Analysis →
2014

The Bortles Draft

+53 (Aaron Donald)

Bortles, Manziel, and the Aaron Donald Masterclass

#1: Jadeveon Clowney (HOU)Read Analysis →
2013

The Kelce Draft

+62 (Travis Kelce)

The Draft That Proved Round 1 QBs Don't Matter — When a 3rd Round TE Becomes the GOAT

#1: Eric Fisher (KC)Read Analysis →
2012

The Luck Draft

+51 (Russell Wilson)

RG3, and the guy nobody noticed

#1: Andrew Luck (IND)Read Analysis →
2011

The Cam Newton Draft

+56 (Cam Newton)

Pioneer proves doubters wrong

#1: Cam Newton (CAR)Read Analysis →
2010

The Sam Bradford Draft

+53 (Rob Gronkowski)

Sam Bradford's Glass Body and the Gronkowski Steal

#1: Sam Bradford (STL)Read Analysis →
2009

The Stafford Draft

+231 (Julian Edelman)

Stafford, Sanchez, and the Hidden Gems: When Day 3 Outplays Day 1

#1: Matthew Stafford (DET)Read Analysis →
2008

The Matt Ryan Draft

+72 (Jamaal Charles)

When Late-Round RBs Owned the League: The Matt Ryan Dilemma

#1: Jake Long (MIA)Read Analysis →
2007

The JaMarcus Russell Draft

+-40 (JaMarcus Russell)

JaMarcus Russell and the Raiders Disaster

#1: JaMarcus Russell (OAK)Read Analysis →
2006

The Reggie Bush Draft

+-27 (Reggie Bush)

Reggie Bush, Mario Williams, and the Hype Machine

#1: Mario Williams (HOU)Read Analysis →
2005

The Rodgers Draft

+49 (Aaron Rodgers)

The slide that created a legend

#1: Alex Smith (SF)Read Analysis →
2004

The Eli/Rivers Draft

+22 (Ben Roethlisberger)

Trade that defined three franchises

#1: Eli Manning (SD→NYG)Read Analysis →
2003

The Polamalu Draft

+15 (Troy Polamalu)

The Draft That Broke Quarterbacks: When Suggs and Polamalu Were the Real Stars

#1: Carson Palmer (CIN)Read Analysis →
2002

The Carr Disaster

+23 (Ed Reed)

The Expansion Disaster: When Houston Got Everything Wrong

#1: David Carr (HOU)Read Analysis →
2001

The LaDainian Tomlinson Draft

+34 (LaDainian Tomlinson)

LaDainian Tomlinson and the Vick Calculation

#1: Michael Vick (ATL)Read Analysis →
2000

The Brady Draft

+45 (Tom Brady)

What if Brady went #1?

#1: Courtney Brown (CLE)Read Analysis →
1999

The Edgerrin James Draft

+33 (Edgerrin James)

Edgerrin James and the Art of the Landing Spot

#1: Tim Couch (CLE)Read Analysis →
1998

The Peyton Manning Draft

+33 (Peyton Manning)

Peyton vs. Ryan — The Ultimate What-If

#1: Peyton Manning (IND)Read Analysis →