2019 NFL Draft
Kyler vs. The Giants' Double-Dip Disaster
What Happened vs What Should've Happened
Three views: 📋 Original Draft → 📊 Career AV → 🧠 Contextual Re-Draft
The Scenario
Arizona shocked everyone by taking Kyler Murray #1 — just one year after drafting Josh Rosen. The Giants took Daniel Jones at #6, passing on elite pass rushers. Both moves were mocked.Five years later: Murray got paid, Jones got benched, and the Giants drafted TWO QBs instead of building around Saquon.
Kyler Murray
#1 • Cardinals
Nick Bosa
#2 • 49ers
Daniel Jones
#6 • Giants
Dwayne Haskins
#15 • Redskins
Nick Bosa → San Francisco 49ers (#2)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Kyle Shanahan) | 95/100 | 15% | 14.3 |
| DC (Robert Saleh → DeMeco) | 92/100 | 18% | 16.6 |
| Defensive Talent Around Him | 90/100 | 15% | 13.5 |
| Family Pedigree (Joey Bosa) | 95/100 | 15% | 14.3 |
| GM (John Lynch) | 90/100 | 12% | 10.8 |
| Team Culture | 95/100 | 15% | 14.3 |
| Ownership | 85/100 | 10% | 8.5 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 92.0 | ||
What Happened
Bosa immediately became one of the NFL's best pass rushers. DPOY in 2022, perennial All-Pro, anchor of a defense that reached the Super Bowl. SF's culture, coaching, and surrounding talent let him dominate from day one. Perfect pick, perfect situation. Exactly what elite defensive prospects need.
Kyler Murray → Arizona Cardinals (#1)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Kliff Kingsbury) | 50/100 | 15% | 7.5 |
| System (Air Raid) | 70/100 | 18% | 12.6 |
| Offensive Line | 45/100 | 15% | 6.8 |
| Skill Weapons (Hopkins trade) | 75/100 | 15% | 11.3 |
| GM (Steve Keim) | 40/100 | 12% | 4.8 |
| Roster Building | 40/100 | 15% | 6.0 |
| Ownership (Bidwills) | 50/100 | 10% | 5.0 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 53.8 | ||
What Happened
Kyler showed flashes of brilliance — ROY, Pro Bowl, incredible athleticism. But Arizona's dysfunction caught up: Kliff got fired, Hopkins got traded, the roster crumbled. Then came the ACL tear. Murray got his $230M extension but hasn't made the playoffs since 2021.Talent wasted by organizational instability. The film study clause in his contract said it all.
Daniel Jones → New York Giants (#6)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Pat Shurmur → Judge → Daboll) | 35/100 | 15% | 5.3 |
| Offensive Line | 20/100 | 20% | 4.0 |
| Skill Weapons (none) | 25/100 | 15% | 3.8 |
| GM (Gettleman → Schoen) | 25/100 | 15% | 3.8 |
| Draft Capital (Saquon at #2) | 30/100 | 15% | 4.5 |
| Franchise Instability | 30/100 | 10% | 3.0 |
| Media Market Pressure | 35/100 | 10% | 3.5 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 27.5 | ||
What Happened
"Duke guy" Daniel Jones was mocked from the moment the pick was announced. He showed enough in 2022 to get a 4-year, $160M deal... then tore his ACL and lost the job. The Giants had already used #2 overall on Saquon (2018) instead of building a line. Two top-10 picks on skill positions, zero investment in protection. Recipe for disaster.
Daniel Jones → San Francisco 49ers
The Alternate Timeline
SF's system, protection, and weapons could have made Jones look competent. Shanahan's scheme is QB-friendly — Jimmy G, Purdy, even Mullens had moments. Jones has decent athleticism for play-action rollouts. He'd never be elite, but he might look like a serviceable starter instead of a $160M mistake.
The Context Comparison
Bosa (SF)
DPOY, All-Pro
Jones (SF)
Hypothetical
Murray (ARI)
$230M, no playoff wins
Jones (NYG)
Benched, cut
Point swing: Same Daniel Jones, different situation (NYG vs. hypothetical SF)
The Verdict
Traditional Re-Draft Says:
"Bosa #1, Josh Allen climbs from #7 to top-5, Jones falls to day 2"
Contextual Re-Draft Says:
"The Giants' dysfunction would have ruined most QBs. Jones was set up to fail. Arizona wasted Kyler's prime. Only SF had the organizational excellence to maximize a pick."
The Giants drafted Saquon #2 in 2018, Jones #6 in 2019, and built neither an offensive line nor a winning culture. That's not a QB evaluation problem — that's an organizational failure. Context matters more than arm strength.