2005 NBA Draft
The Draft Where Chris Paul Slid to #4 — The Most Obvious Mistake of the Decade
The Scenario
Milwaukee took Andrew Bogut #1. Atlanta grabbed Marvin Williams at #2. Utah got Deron Williams at #3. And then New Orleans — the post-Katrina Hornets — got Chris Paul at #4. The floor general, the future Hall of Famer, the best player in the draft by a mile.What if one of those first three teams had the vision to take CP3? What if context had changed the trajectory of a franchise-defining talent?
Chris Paul
#4 • Hornets
Deron Williams
#3 • Jazz
David Lee
#30 • Knicks
Marvin Williams
#2 • Hawks
Chris Paul → New Orleans Hornets (#4)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Byron Scott's structure) | 85/100 | 18% | 15.3 |
| Star Partner (David West) | 82/100 | 18% | 14.8 |
| Organizational Need | 95/100 | 15% | 14.3 |
| Role Clarity (Day 1 starter) | 95/100 | 15% | 14.3 |
| Development Infrastructure | 75/100 | 12% | 9.0 |
| Market Pressure (Katrina relief) | 92/100 | 12% | 11.0 |
| Roster Fit (no competition) | 90/100 | 10% | 9.0 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 87.9 | ||
The Context
Post-Katrina New Orleans needed a hero. CP3 became that and more — instant starter, All-Rookie First Team, franchise cornerstone. Byron Scott gave him structure, David West gave him a pick-and-roll partner, and the city gave him a mission. The fit was near-perfect. CP3 wasn't just a good pick at #4 — he was the best player in the entire draft, and New Orleans gave him everything he needed to prove it.
Chris Paul → Milwaukee Bucks (#1)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Terry Porter — first year) | 60/100 | 18% | 10.8 |
| Star Partner (Michael Redd) | 75/100 | 18% | 13.5 |
| Organizational Stability | 55/100 | 15% | 8.3 |
| Role Clarity (day 1 PG) | 85/100 | 15% | 12.8 |
| Development Infrastructure | 60/100 | 12% | 7.2 |
| Market Pressure (small market) | 70/100 | 12% | 8.4 |
| Roster Fit (no competition) | 80/100 | 10% | 8.0 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 68.3 | ||
The Alternate Timeline
Milwaukee in 2005 was a franchise in flux — decent pieces, no direction. CP3 and Michael Redd would've been an elite backcourt, but the Bucks' organizational instability (three coaches in three years) would have slowed his development. He still becomes a star, but maybe not *the* Point God without Byron Scott's structure. CP3 elevated New Orleans; Milwaukee might have held him back.
Andrew Bogut → Milwaukee Bucks (#1)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Terry Porter — mediocre) | 55/100 | 18% | 9.9 |
| Star Partner (Michael Redd) | 70/100 | 18% | 12.6 |
| Organizational Direction | 45/100 | 15% | 6.8 |
| Role Clarity (starting C) | 75/100 | 15% | 11.3 |
| Development Infrastructure | 50/100 | 12% | 6.0 |
| Market Pressure (low) | 60/100 | 12% | 7.2 |
| Injury Risk (elbows, back) | 40/100 | 10% | 4.0 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 56.9 | ||
The Context
Bogut was solid — not spectacular. 7 years in Milwaukee, one All-Star nod, constant injuries. He became an elite facilitating center later in Golden State, but Milwaukee's dysfunction stunted his prime. The Bucks needed a franchise savior. Bogut was a good player on a middling team. Meanwhile, CP3 was rewriting the record books 1,000 miles south.
Danny Granger → Indiana Pacers (#17)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Rick Carlisle's system) | 88/100 | 18% | 15.8 |
| Star Partner (Jermaine O'Neal) | 78/100 | 18% | 14.0 |
| Organizational Stability | 75/100 | 15% | 11.3 |
| Role Clarity (3&D wing) | 80/100 | 15% | 12.0 |
| Development Infrastructure (excellent) | 82/100 | 12% | 9.8 |
| Market Pressure (low) | 65/100 | 12% | 7.8 |
| Roster Fit (perfect spacing) | 85/100 | 10% | 8.5 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 79.9 | ||
The Context
Rick Carlisle + 3-and-D wing + patient development = All-Star. Granger at #17 was highway robbery. He became Indiana's go-to scorer (25.8 PPG in 2009), an All-Star, and the face of the franchise. The Pacers gave him time, structure, and a defined role. He rewarded them with 9 productive seasons. Perfect fit, perfect context, perfect value.
David Lee → New York Knicks (#30)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Larry Brown's toughness) | 82/100 | 18% | 14.8 |
| Star Partner (none — rebuild) | 55/100 | 18% | 9.9 |
| Market Pressure (NYC — high) | 75/100 | 15% | 11.3 |
| Role Clarity (energy big) | 90/100 | 15% | 13.5 |
| Development Infrastructure | 70/100 | 12% | 8.4 |
| Minutes Opportunity (high) | 85/100 | 12% | 10.2 |
| Roster Fit (rebounding need) | 88/100 | 10% | 8.8 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 77.5 | ||
The Context
David Lee at #30 = grand larceny. The Knicks were a mess, but Lee's motor, rebounding, and hustle were undeniable. He became a 2x All-Star, averaged 20/11 in his peak, and later won a ring in Golden State. The #30 pick became the 3rd-best player in the entire draft (by Win Shares). Context didn't make Lee — talent + work ethic did — but the Knicks gave him the minutes to shine.
Monta Ellis → Golden State Warriors (#40)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Don Nelson's chaos) | 60/100 | 18% | 10.8 |
| Star Partner (Baron Davis) | 72/100 | 18% | 13.0 |
| Organizational Direction (unclear) | 50/100 | 15% | 7.5 |
| Role Clarity (bench scorer) | 80/100 | 15% | 12.0 |
| Development Infrastructure | 65/100 | 12% | 7.8 |
| Market Pressure (low for #40) | 70/100 | 12% | 8.4 |
| Minutes Opportunity (eventual) | 75/100 | 10% | 7.5 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 67.3 | ||
The Context
Monta Ellis — the Mississippi bullet, the fearless 6'3" scorer who played like he was 6'8". Don Nelson's run-and-gun system gave him freedom; Baron Davis' departure gave him the keys. He became a 2x All-Star and averaged 25.5 PPG in 2010. At #40, Ellis was a home run. Golden State's chaos suited his improvisational style. Not every pick needs structure — sometimes raw talent + opportunity is enough.
The Class of 2005 (By Win Shares)
Chris Paul (#4)
All-time great
Deron Williams (#3)
Solid All-Star
David Lee (#30)
2nd round steal
Marvin Williams (#2)
Long career
Andrew Bogut (#1)
Good, not great
Win Share gap: Chris Paul vs. Andrew Bogut
The Verdict
Traditional Re-Draft Says:
"Chris Paul #1, Deron Williams #2, David Lee #3."
Contextual Re-Draft Says:
"Chris Paul should have gone #1, but New Orleans at #4 was a near-perfect landing spot. Milwaukee, Atlanta, and Utah all missed the obvious pick. The real winners? Indiana (#17 — Granger), New York (#30 — Lee), and Golden State (#40 — Ellis). Great scouting + context = hidden gems."
The 2005 draft is a case study in missed opportunities. Chris Paul was the best player by a landslide — 215.2 Win Shares, 12x All-Star, future Hall of Famer. Three teams passed on him for centers and a versatile forward. What if Milwaukee had taken CP3 at #1? Maybe Michael Redd gets a ring. Maybe the Bucks don't languish for a decade. Maybe the Point God wears green instead of blue and gold. Context matters, but talent matters more. CP3 proved it.