What Could Have Been: If Portland Drafted Kevin Durant

June 28, 2007. The Portland Trail Blazers are on the clock with the #1 overall pick. The consensus says there are two franchise-altering prospects: Greg Oden, a dominant 7-foot center from Ohio State, and Kevin Durant, a 6'10" scoring savant from Texas.

Portland chose Oden.

It's the most painful what-if in NBA draft history. Not because Oden was a bad pick at the time — most scouts and analysts agreed with the choice — but because of what came next. Oden's knees betrayed him. Durant became one of the five greatest scorers in basketball history. And Portland spent the next decade wondering what could have been.

Let's run it through our contextual model.

What Durant Walked Into: Seattle/OKC

Kevin Durant landed with the Seattle SuperSonics, a franchise in chaos. The team was in the process of being relocated to Oklahoma City by new owner Clay Bennett. The roster was thin. The culture was nonexistent.

Coaching (18% weight): C. P.J. Carlesimo took over during Durant's rookie year after Bob Hill was fired. Carlesimo was a placeholder, not a developer. Scott Brooks would eventually stabilize things, but he was never considered an elite X's and O's coach. Durant thrived despite the coaching, not because of it.

Supporting Cast (17% weight): C+. In Durant's first two seasons, his best teammates were Jeff Green and Nick Collison. Solid players, but not exactly an All-Star supporting cast. It wasn't until Russell Westbrook developed (drafted #4 in 2008) and James Harden arrived (drafted #3 in 2009) that Durant had real help. That took three years.

Organization & Stability (15% weight): D. The franchise literally moved cities. Durant went from Seattle to Oklahoma City between his first and second seasons. New city, new arena, new fan base, new identity. That kind of organizational upheaval usually sets franchises back years.

Development Infrastructure (15% weight): B. OKC did invest in player development. They built through the draft intelligently, and their training staff was solid. Durant was given the green light to grow into the franchise player from day one.

Overall Seattle/OKC Contextual Score: 58/100.

What Portland Could Have Offered

Now here's where it gets interesting. Portland in 2007 was a much better contextual fit for a franchise player than Seattle.

Coaching (18% weight): B+. Nate McMillan was a respected, defensive-minded coach who brought structure and accountability. He wasn't a revolutionary offensive mind, but he created an environment where young players grew. More importantly, he was stable — no mid-season firings, no relocations, no chaos.

Supporting Cast (17% weight): A-. This is the big one. Portland had Brandon Roy. The 2007 Rookie of the Year, a silky-smooth shooting guard who was already an All-Star by his second season. Roy and Durant together would have been devastating — a two-headed scoring monster with complementary games. Roy was the mid-range assassin; Durant was the perimeter flamethrower.

Beyond Roy, Portland had LaMarcus Aldridge, drafted #2 overall in 2006. Aldridge was developing into one of the best power forwards in the game — a smooth 20-and-10 guy who could stretch the floor. A Durant-Roy-Aldridge trio would have been the best young core in the NBA. Period.

Organization & Stability (15% weight): B+. Portland had a strong front office under GM Kevin Pritchard. They were making smart draft picks (Roy, Aldridge, later Rudy Fernandez and Jerryd Bayless). The ownership was committed to winning. The Rose Garden was rocking. This was a franchise on the upswing.

Development Infrastructure (15% weight): B+. Portland had a track record of developing young talent. Roy blossomed there. Aldridge grew steadily each year. The Blazers' player development pipeline was one of the better ones in the league.

Overall Portland Contextual Score: 78/100.

A 20-Point Difference — In Portland's Favor

Durant's actual landing spot scored 58. Portland would have scored 78. That's a 20-point contextual advantage for the Blazers.

Now, Durant became a four-time scoring champion, an MVP, and a two-time Finals MVP in OKC and Golden State. He's one of the greatest players ever. So what does a 20-point contextual boost actually mean for someone already operating at that level?

It means earlier success. Durant didn't make the playoffs until his third season in OKC. In Portland, with Roy and Aldridge? The Blazers were already a playoff team in 2008-09. Durant would have been competing for titles by age 22, not 23.

It means more stability. No franchise relocation. No Carlesimo-to-Brooks coaching carousel. Just steady growth in a city that already loved its team. Durant wouldn't have spent his formative years in organizational chaos.

It means the dynasty conversation starts sooner. The 2008-09 Blazers won 54 games with Brandon Roy leading the way. Add Kevin Durant to that team instead of Greg Oden? That's a 60-win team. That's a legitimate title contender before the LeBron-Wade-Bosh Heat even formed.

The Tragedy Beneath the What-If

But here's the part that makes this what-if truly heartbreaking: it wasn't just about Durant. It was about what Portland lost.

Brandon Roy's knees gave out. The man who was supposed to be Portland's franchise cornerstone underwent multiple meniscus surgeries and suffered degenerative arthritis in both knees before he turned 28. He retired in 2011, attempted a comeback in 2012, and was done. His career: just 326 games.

Greg Oden played 105 games total. One hundred and five. The #1 overall pick, the reason Portland passed on Durant, played fewer career games than most role players log in two seasons. Microfracture surgery, more knee problems, endless rehab. Oden's career is one of the saddest in sports history.

LaMarcus Aldridge was the last man standing — and even he eventually left in free agency, signing with San Antonio in 2015.

If Portland had taken Durant, the trajectory changes completely. Roy's knees still fail, and that's tragic no matter what. But with Durant anchoring the franchise, Portland doesn't fall into the abyss. They don't spend 2012-2018 rebuilding. They're competing for titles throughout.

The Model's Verdict

Our contextual model says Durant in Portland would have been the best young core in the NBA from 2007-2012: Durant, Roy, and Aldridge, playing for a stable organization with competent coaching and a passionate fan base.

The model projects earlier playoff success (conference finals by 2009-10), a realistic title window from 2010-2013, and a longer sustained run of competitiveness — even after Roy's inevitable injury.

Would Durant have stayed long-term? Our model can't predict free agency decisions. But a franchise that's winning, in a city that adores its team, with a front office that drafts well? That's a harder place to leave than a team that literally relocated and couldn't pay James Harden.

Kevin Durant was always going to be great. But Portland could have made him great sooner, surrounded him with better context, and maybe — just maybe — built the dynasty that never was.

Instead, they took Greg Oden. And the rest is the cruelest kind of history.

— AltDraft Analytics